The Republican presidential hopefuls will debate in Las Vegas on Tuesday amid a particularly volatile campaign stretch, where terrorism attacks at home and abroad have unleashed new anxieties among voters and some candidates have surged anew in key early voting states.
Yet for eight of the nine top-tier candidates on the prime-time stage, their top task is one that has vexed them for months: how to siphon support from the race’s front-runner,Donald Trump.
This gathering offers one last opportunity for the the full range of Trump-containment strategies, from the combative approach taken by Ohio Gov. John Kasich to Texas Sen.Ted Cruz’s determinedly conciliatory tone, to take hold before an anticipated lull in campaign activity over the holidays. And other simmering feuds, such as the rivalry between Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, also lurk as potential subplots.
Part of the conundrum for Trump’s rivals is that attacking him seems to have little effect on the support he draws. The more Trump is scrutinized or disparaged, the more adamantly his supporters back him, a focus group of voters conducted by Republican strategist Frank Luntz found last week.
“They discounted all the attacks,” Luntz said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.
Trump himself is prone to taking acerbic swipes at his rivals, such as branding former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as “low-energy” and mocking retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson’s self-described troubled youth.
Trump’s sharp bite – coupled withRepublicans’ fears that alienating Trump could prompt him to launch an independent bid – has dissuaded many of his rivals from taking him on directly on the debate stage. But there’s an upside to a more aggressive approach, said Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Political Science at USC.
“The candidate who does take him on runs a huge risk but probably gets a huge boost as well,” Schnur said. “Trump’s greatest appeal is that he projects strength. So the test for another Republican primary candidate is how to display strength, but a different kind of strength than Trump’s.”
The most compelling dynamic Tuesday could prove to be the interactions between Trump and Cruz, who has climbed to the top of the Iowa polls and earned key support from the state’s powerful evangelical voting bloc just eight weeks before the state’s caucuses.
While other GOP contenders have blasted Trump for his often-incendiary rhetoric, Cruz has deliberately taken a friendlier tack toward the front-runner. But a recording leaked from a private fundraiser last week revealed he questioned the judgment of Trump and Carson, another favorite among conservatives.
The Texas senator denied he was going after Trump, tweeting Friday that a “cage match” between him and Trump was the “only hope” of the party’s elite.
Trump, predictably, attacked, defending himself on the Sunday news talk shows as possessing “far better judgment than Ted” and labeling Cruz “a bit of a maniac” for his unyielding approach in dealing with other senators.
Tuesday also marks the first GOP debate since terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino catapulted national security to a top issue of the 2016 race.
Trump has approached the issue with his trademark bombast, proposing last week to temporarily bar all Muslims from entering the country, though he later backed off somewhat, saying he’d allow certain exceptions for athletes and others.
His proposal drew swift rebukes from some of his competitors, but a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday found that 59% of Republicans support the ban, while 38% oppose it. The proposal is markedly less popular with the nation as a whole; the poll found 60% of Americans reject the ban while 39% support it.
But for other candidates, the emphasis on international affairs has proved treacherous. Carson tumbled in national polls amid criticism he was ill-prepared for the complex foreign policy landscape the next president will inherit.
In response, Carson has peppered recent stump speeches with specific references to jihadists and the Middle East.
The renewed importance of foreign policy also offers Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, a chance to build on recent momentum he has notched in New Hampshire. A former U.S. attorney, Christie has been touting his prosecutorial experience as best positioning him to confront terrorism.
For others, like former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the forum marks a chance to recapture the spotlight. Fiorina logged strong debate performances in August and September, which bumped her standing in the polls. But the boost was fleeting and Fiorina has hovered in the low single digits for national polls.
The challenge for Fiorina and other stagnant candidates, such as Bush and Kasich, is to create a breakout moment on a crowded debate stage – no easy feat, said Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.
“It’s difficult to rehearse and set up the moment you would like to see happen in a debate. … Time is not on their side anymore, so there’s even more pressure trying to make something happen,” Scala said.
The nine candidates in the main event, to be aired on CNN, are Trump, Cruz, Christie, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Kasich, Fiorina and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.
In the earlier debate featuring lower-polling candidates, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former New York Gov. George Pataki are all slated to appear.
Los Angeles Times December 15, 2015
