WASHINGTON — The New Hampshire presidential primary vote usually breaks late. This time, not unusually, it seems likely to break a few candidates.
Eight weeks before the primary, Jeb Bush, John R. Kasich, Chris Christie and probably Marco Rubio are in a wide-open contest to be the mainstream alternative to Donald J. Trump. Two or three of them may well be dead after the vote, set for Feb. 9. Among Democrats, if Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont, loses to Hillary Clinton in his neighboring state, he’s probably toast. If he wins, the contest will go on for a while.
The caucuses in Iowa — which come on Feb. 1 and in which Senator Ted Cruz has surged ahead of Mr. Trump in the polls — could eliminate two or three of the right-wing also-rans. But on the mainstream conservative side, the task of culling falls to New Hampshire, which prides itself as the place that picks presidents. In the past 10 primaries, 15 of the 20 victors went on to win their party’s nomination.
Voters can choose either party’s primary in New Hampshire, and knowledgeable Republicans suggest that a heavy influx of independents could help push a mainstream conservative to the top spot. There is no movement yet, and it’s possible that this vote could split rather evenly, with no candidate breaking out.
Each of the aspirants has a pathway and hurdles.
Supporters of Mr. Bush, a former Florida governor, believe that his disappointing candidacy finally may be coming together.
“In the end, New Hampshire looks for someone who can win, is substantive and can govern; Jeb is well positioned to start connecting,” said Judd Gregg, a former United States senator from the state. But polls, some private ones even more than the public surveys, suggest no movement, even slippage, and other campaigns discount the onetime front-runner.
Mr. Christie, the governor of New Jersey, with his tough-guy persona, may be getting a boost after the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif. He won the endorsement of The New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper. But Mr. Christie has no national security experience, and in the current news media landscape, The Union Leader doesn’t carry the political clout it once did.
Mr. Kasich, the Ohio governor and a former congressman, has a first-class organization that is targeting independent female voters who may be attracted to his relative moderation and extensive experience on economic and national security issues. He emphasizes his credentials, and his camp says his record on jobs and fiscal soundness as governor far eclipses that of Mr. Christie. But Mr. Kasich has been lackluster in the debates, and Mr. Gregg, though he admires the Ohio governor, doesn’t believe that he can be a top contender.
Mr. Rubio, the junior senator from Florida, is an enigma. He’s the most charismatic of this field, and polls show him gaining. But he has less of an organizational presence and may get caught in a squeeze as he tries to straddle right-wing and more mainstream views.
There are mixed opinions about whether Mr. Trump’s considerable lead in New Hampshire will continue to erode. Mr. Kasich has argued that voters ultimately “will want someone who can land the plane.” And Jeb Bradley, the majority leader of the New Hampshire Senate and a supporter of Mr. Christie, sees his plain-speaking candidate as a beneficiary of slippage.
But the Trump camp insists that this is not happening. “A lot of people who had given up on politics are going to come out for Donald Trump, and that’s going to befuddle the establishment,” said Stephen Stepanek, a New Hampshire State representative and supporter. Moreover, although Mr. Cruz’s brand of conservatism has been dismissed in New Hampshire, a big Iowa win could give him momentum.
A deciding factor may be independents, who account for 40 percent of New Hampshire’s electorate. If they vote heavily in the Republican contest, as some polls suggest, that could be a big boost for one of the mainstream contenders and a potential setback for Mr. Sanders’s challenge to Mrs. Clinton.
