Bemusement over the Republican presidential race is giving way to alarm in corporate America as the traditional party of business toys with nominating two candidates — Donald Trump and Ted Cruz — who many executives view as intolerable.
The spectre of Mr Trump’s caustic bluster and Mr Cruz’s unbending conservatism has left some Republican-leaning business people discussing a previously unthinkable prospect: voting for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner.
Speaking ahead of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, Jim Newsome, a derivatives lobbyist who chaired the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under President George W Bush, said until recently he was laughing about the Trump campaign.
“I’m not laughing any more . . . I’m slightly worried about it,” he told a conference following last week’s Iowa caucuses, where the property mogul saw victory snatched from his grasp by Mr Cruz, the Texas senator.
“If it comes down to Hillary and Trump or Cruz, Hillary’s got my vote. While I don’t agree with Hillary on a lot of issues, I know what I’m getting if we elect Hillary versus a Trump or a Cruz,” said Mr Newsome.
Joshua Lewis, founder of Salmon River Capital, a New York private equity group, said: “I think it’s a devil’s choice. I categorise myself as an independent. There are Republicans I could vote for. But neither one of those two under any circumstance.”
An executive at one of America’s biggest companies said of Mr Trump and Mr Cruz: “They are getting invested in issues that are not of interest to business — or actively anti-business.”
Despite Mr Trump’s credentials as a billionaire entrepreneur, he has dismayed business people with his attacks on women, Mexicans and Muslims and his tendency to offer more vague promises of greatness than concrete policies.
“Trump has been so bereft of any detail that it’s very hard to know what you are going to get,” said the executive.
Mr Trump has suggested mass deportations that would risk paralysing the US economy, declared a new Pacific Rim trade deal backed by business a “disaster” and vowed to make Apple manufacture all its devices in the US, an idea experts say is implausible.
He however has the backing of Carl Icahn, the billionaire investor, who has said Mr Trump is the right man to shake up Washington. Mr Trump also secured a high-profile $1m donation from Ike Perlmutter, chief executive of Marvel Entertainment.
Mr Cruz, a slick speaker with sharp intellect, has a reputation for arrogance and is regarded by many as too rightwing to win the general election.
He gained notoriety in 2013 when he helped to shut down the government in a protest over President Barack Obama’s healthcare reforms, an episode that many executives saw as a triumph of ideology over good sense.
“Even if I were a libertarian — which I’m not — I don’t think Cruz is capable of governing,” said Mr Lewis. “He’s better at burning the house down than building it.”
On the campaign trail Mr Cruz calls for monetary policy to be linked to the gold price, an idea mainstream economists disparage. He has vowed to abolish five government departments, a position that goes beyond what even rule-weary corporations want.
Many business people began the campaign backing Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor whose campaign has floundered. They are now pinning their hopes on Marco Rubio, the Florida senator who finished third in Iowa, as a pro-business contender who can see off Mr Trump and Mr Cruz.
Steve Odland, a former chief executive of Office Depot and AutoZone who heads the Committee for Economic Development, a business-minded think-tank, said: “After eight years of a poor economic situation, voters are frustrated and very eager to vent their frustration in an emotional fashion.”
“What we saw in Iowa was a bit of catharsis and I think we’ll see more of that in the early [voting] states. The question is when the real [electoral] delegates are up — and a quarter of the delegates are up on March 1 — will we return to thinking about jobs, the $19tn of debt, and security threats and healthcare?”
How they stand on issues
Donald Trump
Immigration Beyond his hostile rhetoric, business has been horrified by Mr Trump’s threat to deport 11m people in the US without proper papers. Many are working, often in low-paid jobs, and have become a vital part of the US labour market.
Tax Mr Trump plans to slash the top corporate tax rate from 39 per cent to 15 per cent and wants a deemed repatriation of foreign earnings at 10 per cent. He wants to cut the top personal income tax rate from nearly 40 per cent to 25 per cent.
Budget Businesses like balanced budgets but Mr Trump’s tax cuts would lead to a huge $10tn drop in revenue over 10 years, says the Tax Foundation. He would make spending cuts to offset the losses.
Trade Mr Trump has called for imposing a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese goods coming into the US and declared a vast new Pacific Rim trade deal negotiated by President Barack Obama a “disaster”. He also wants to dispatch activist investor Carl Icahn to hammer out new trade deals with China and other competitors.
Healthcare Mr Trump sees a role for public funding in healthcare. He wants private insurance but with premiums paid by government. Businesses hate the idea, saying federal penny-pinching would destroy innovation and competition.
Energy Mr Trump dismisses climate change as “weather” and criticises China as a big polluter. He would approve the Keystone XL pipeline. Also supports “eminent domain” — the power of the state to seize private property for use in public energy projects.
Federal Reserve Mr Trump has accused the US central bank of keeping interest rates low at the behest of Mr Obama, because the president does not want a big rise that could burst a bubble on his watch. He has also said his business benefits from low rates.
Ted Cruz
Immigration Although he has not called for mass deportation, Mr Cruz is a fierce opponent of “amnesty” for people in the US illegally. He has vowed to build a fence on the US-Mexico border and to triple the number of border agents.
Tax Business wants simple taxes and Mr Cruz’s plan is simplest. For companies, it abolishes income tax and replaces it with a value added tax of 16 per cent. For individuals, a “flat” 10 per cent rate would replace seven tax brackets.
Budget Mr Cruz wants a constitutional amendment to require balanced budgets and would scrap five government departments. His plans would cut revenue by $768bn over a decade, says the Tax Foundation.
Trade Mr Cruz has flip-flopped on trade, most notably last year when he declared his last-minute opposition to granting Mr Obama so-called “fast-track” authority to negotiate trade pacts. He also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Mr Obama sealed with Japan and 10 other economies and is now trying to get through Congress.
Healthcare Market-based healthcare is Mr Cruz’s solution. He has suggested two fixes that businesses like. One is to replace multiple state-based systems with a single national insurance market. The other is to delink health insurance from employment.
Energy Mr Cruz is the most sceptical about climate change. He would approve the Keystone pipeline and abolish the Environmental Protection Agency. He is strongly opposed to eminent domain, which lets politicians “enrich the fat cats”.
Federal Reserve He wants to return to the “gold standard”, which ties monetary policy to the price of gold. Most economists think it is a “crazy idea”, says Tim Kane at the Hoover Institution. Mr Cruz also wants tougher congressional oversight of the Fed.
Marco Rubio
Immigration Business cheered a 2013 bill Mr Rubio helped to create a pathway to citizenship for 11m undocumented immigrants. It ultimately failed. In the 2016 campaign he has taken a much tougher line and tried to disassociate himself from the bill.
Tax Mr Rubio would cut the top corporate tax rate to 25 per cent and allow businesses to write off investment expenses immediately. Deemed repatriation of foreign earnings at 6 per cent. He would cut the top personal tax rate to 35 per cent.
Budget He favours a balanced budget amendment and plans to cut the deficit by reforming social security and Medicare. The plans cut revenues by $2.4tn over 10 years, says the Tax Foundation.
Trade Mr Rubio is by far the leading free-trader among the top contenders. He backed a bill granting fast-track authority for Mr Obama last year and has in the past written effusively about the TPP. In a speech last year he said rivals who opposed deals such as the TPP were failing to grasp “trade’s role as a tool of statecraft”.
Healthcare Mr Rubio’s plan to replace Obamacare is the most developed. It includes tax credits that can be used to buy health insurance, an approach not dissimilar to current subsidies. He is not averse to government help for insurers.
Energy He has focused more on the economic impact of climate policies than the science of global warming. He would approve Keystone and says eminent domain can be necessary but has been overused.
Federal Reserve He has said Fed over-reach has led to an “unhealthy, Fed-centric economy that leaves businesses and investors hanging on the arbitrary, unpredictable decisions of a few central bankers”. He supported a bill to audit Fed monetary policy that did not pass.
Financial Times February 7, 2016
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