e latest New York Times-CBS News poll makes Republican Party divisions clear, from the choice of a presidential nominee to whether party members are willing to see their leaders compromise on legislation.
For the first time since The Times and CBS News began testing candidate preferences in July, the retired neurosurgeon Ben Carsonhas displaced Donald J. Trump as the leader of the large Republican field, although the difference is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error. The churn in the field suggests more volatility as the contest draws closer to the primaries early next year.
Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump draw support from different segments of the Republican electorate, with Mr. Carson winning the allegiance of evangelicals and self-described conservatives. Mr. Trump does better among Republican primary voters who do not have a college education and with those who are not evangelical.
The two wings of the party also differ on issues ranging from taxes and immigration to gun control and same-sex marriage .Republican voters appear remarkably aware of their own challenges: Three-quarters of those surveyed called their own party dividedand seven in 10 acknowledged that Republicans were at least partly to blame for dysfunction and gridlock in Washington.
The intraparty differences could be difficult to bridge. A majority of Republican voters said their leaders should be willing to offer concessions to get things done in Washington, but about four in 10 said that Republican officials should stick to their principles even if it meant more legislative paralysis.
And the party’s appetite for compromise is only waning: While 56 percent of Republican voters surveyed said congressionalRepublicans should compromise, that is a decline of 12 percentage points from when Republicans were asked the same question in July 2013, shortly before the last shutdown of the federal government. The growing anger toward what they see as capitulation was illustrated again on Tuesday when conservatives reacted with fury over what they said what was the party leaders’ secret negotiations and deal with President Obama to increase spending and raise the debt ceiling .
Republican voters are plainly disappointed in the House and Senate majorities they elected. Two-thirds of Republican voters disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs and frustrated that even with majorities in both chambers,Republican leaders cannot seem to break the gridlock.
«I thought when there was a Republican majority in the House and the Senate, everything was going to be fine, but that wasn’t case,» Dan McLane, 69, a retired tool-and-die maker in Canfield, Ohio, said in an interview after the poll results were clear. «When the Tea Party came in, I thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread, so to speak, but that wasn’t the case. There weren’t enough of them to get things where they should be and it just created dissension. The thing I like about them is they are like bulldogs and they just hold to their principles, but you can only take them to a certain point.»
The party is unambiguously united, however, in one respect: They share a deep dissatisfaction with Washington. Only 10 percent of those surveyed said they were enthusiastic or satisfied with what is happening in the capital, while 37 percent described themselves as angry and 52 percent as dissatisfied.
The party’s discontent with elected leaders is on vivid display in its presidential nominating contest. The top two contenders are political outsiders using inflammatory language to criticize Washington, attributes that appear to have lifted them.
Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump are each drawing support of more than 20 percent of the party’s voters, while candidates with considerable political experience such as Jeb Bush , Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey languish in single digits.
The Republican race, however, remains unsettled, and the party’s third debate Wednesday could further scramble the field. Early national polls have proven unreliable predictors in the last two Republican presidential races, which have been shaped by the winners of the states that kick off the nominating process.
Seven in 10 primary voters who expressed support for a candidate said it was too early to say for sure which candidate they would support. Just 28 percent indicated their mind was made up. The number of Republicans indicating it is too early to decide is an increase from the results when the question was asked in September, suggesting that the race may only become more turbulent.
In a sign of their uncertainty about who to support, none of the six hopefuls tested found enthusiastic support from a majority of their party’s primary voters. Mr. Carson came the closest — 48 percent of Republicans said they would enthusiastically support him — but 35 percent indicated they would back him with reservations or only because he was the nominee.
Mr. Bush, though, is finding the most resistance in trying to appeal to his party.
Only 18 percent of Republicans said they would enthusiastically support Bush, a son and brother of Republican presidents, the lowest of any candidate, and about half of primary voters said they would either support him because he was the nominee or not vote for him at all.
While Mr. Carson holds a tenuous lead in this poll, support for Mr. Trump appears firmer than it is for Mr. Carson. A majority of Trump supporters, 55 percent, say their mind is made up. But 80 percent of Carson supporters say it is too early to say for sure. Such numbers indicate that Mr. Trump may have a floor of support that he can count on if he is willing to stay in the race while he is no longer leading in every poll, which, until now, had been his calling card.
On policy, Republicans are splintered among their ideological blocs.
Fifty-eight percent say the party should reduce the federal budget deficit through a combination of tax increases and spending cuts, while 40 percent say it should be done only through spending cuts. Nearly half of Republican voters prefer gun control laws be kept as they are while 39 percent say gun regulations should be made more strict.
More than four in 10 Republicans think illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in America and apply for citizenship while 38 percent say the undocumented should be required to leave the country. And while 38 percent of Republicans say same-sex couples should be allowed to marry, 55 percent of the party’s voters say such unions should be illegal.
For Representative Paul D. Ryan , who is likely to succeed Representative John A. Boehner as speaker of the House, there is some good news. While nearly half of Republicans do not have an opinion of Mr. Ryan, the vice presidential nominee in 2012, he is viewed more positively than negatively by those who do know him, including among the conservatives most critical of Mr. Boehner and Washington.
«I think when new blood comes in, people are sometimes more apt to go with them,» George Labrecque, 73, a retired insurance salesman in Lakeland, Fla., said in a follow-up interview. «And I also think Paul Ryan is a bit more conservative than John Boehner. He’s more apt to fight for certain things. Boehner just didn’t seem to want to fight anything.»
JONATHAN MARTIN and MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
The New York Times October 28, 2015
