Hillary Clinton began 2016 with a two-day, six-stop swing across Iowa aimed at locking down her fragile lead over Bernie Sanders in the Feb. 1 caucuses.

There’s little doubt that Clinton is outpacing the insurgent Vermont senator in Iowa: It’s been four months since Sanders led Clinton in a reliable poll of likely or potential Democratic caucus-goers here. But it’s also been nearly a month since the most recent poll was conducted — a result of pollsters staying out of the field as Iowa voters were focused more on the holidays than on politics.

And while the former secretary of state has led in the past 14 polls conducted by live telephone interviewers, there is another caveat that could give the Clinton campaign pause: In those 14 polls, the only two that show her with a lead of less than 10 points were from The Des Moines Register and legendary Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer.

Selzer’s reputation for accuracy is well-earned: Her final polls in the 2014 Senate race, the 2012 general election and GOP caucuses, and the 2008 caucuses in both parties were famously predictive of the eventual results. An October survey from Selzer, which was commissioned by Bloomberg Politics and the Register, showed Clinton with a 7-point lead. In December, Clinton’s lead had inched up to 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent — significant, but hardly dominant.

Since the holidays, there has been a dearth of new public polls, with the most recent reliable surveys, like the Des Moines Register poll, all conducted in the first half of December. But the contemporaneous polls all show Clinton with larger leads — built upon her advantages with older caucus-goers and women, two constituencies well-represented on stops throughout her Iowa swing this week.

A Fox News poll in early December showed Clinton leading Sanders by 14 points, 50 percent to 36 percent. Sanders actually held a 2-point edge among men, 42 percent to 40 percent. But Clinton dominated among women, 57 percent to 31 percent.

There’s also a significant age gap. According to Fox’s crosstabs, Sanders leads among young caucus-goers — outpacing Clinton 56 percent to 34 percent among those under age 45. But Clinton has strong appeal with older voters — leading Sanders 59 percent to 24 percent among those 45 and older.

Even in the Des Moines Register poll, Clinton captures 64 percent of voters aged 65 and older, and 54 percent among likely female caucus-goers.

One major Clinton play at older voters: her experience as first lady, senator and secretary of state. At a town hall in Osage on Tuesday morning, she laid out the challenges and responsibilities facing the next president, and added, “I think I’m the only candidate with the experience to fill that job description.” And in her final event in Iowa, on Tuesday night in Council Bluffs, she urged Democrats to weigh their candidates’ “electability.”

Those arguments resonate with 70-year-old James Piros — a retired doctor from Carlisle, Iowa, who said he was torn between Clinton and Sanders.

“Cerebrally, I am” leaning toward Clinton, Piros said at Clinton’s rally in Des Moines on Monday. “Morally, I tend more toward Bernie,” he said.

Sanders’ appeal among younger voters also means he is more dependent on potentially less reliable caucus-goers. (Among those surveyed by the Register who said they had never before attended a Democratic caucus, Sanders led Clinton, 49 percent to 40 percent.)

Barack Obama defeated Clinton (and former Sen. John Edwards) in the 2008 caucuses in large part because of a surge of first-time caucus-goers backing him. According to entrance polls, 57 percent of caucus-goers were participating for the first time, and those voters backed Obama, 41 percent to 29 percent for Clinton and 18 percent for Edwards.

But while Sanders might be trying to replicate that Obama surge, he is starting in a weaker position. A month out from the 2008 caucuses, Clinton and Obama were already running neck and neck in public polls, compared with Clinton’s solid lead this cycle.

David Redlawsk, a Rutgers University professor who is in Iowa as a fellow at Drake University’s Harkin Institute for Public Policy and Citizen Engagement, noted that Sanders is strong in some of the cities and college towns across the state, such as Cedar Rapids, Iowa City and Des Moines.

But he questioned whether Sanders is really building a statewide movement to win delegates across the entire state.

“For Sanders, much of his visible support appears to really be focused around the urban areas,” Redlawsk said.

“Does he have the organization and support outside of those areas? Does he have people ready to caucus for him in Keokuk County?” Redlawsk added, naming one of the most sparsely populated of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Drake University professor Art Sanders suggested another possible analogue: 2000, when former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley tried to galvanize college students in Iowa to support his uphill bid for the Democratic nomination.

“Bill Bradley tried the same thing when ran against Al Gore,” Sanders said. “They didn’t turn out for him, though.”

Still, Clinton’s overall lead in the polls worries some supporters, including Heather Johnson, a Clinton precinct captain in Davenport, who remembered how the air of inevitability dogged Clinton’s campaign eight years ago.

“I do think there’s a perception that’s there, people say they don’t need to caucus because she’s got it locked up anyway,” Johnson said.

But that’s through no fault of Clinton’s, she said, replying, “Oh, yes,” when asked if Clinton is spending enough time in the state. “I don’t feel at all that she’s taking Iowa for granted this time,” Johnson said.

At an event in Davenport on Monday, Clinton implied that a victory in Iowa, combined with winning New Hampshire eight days later, would essentially deliver her the nomination and allow her to shift her focus to the general election. Losing both early states, on the other hand, would give Sanders — who trails Clinton by wider margins nationally than in early states — valuable momentum moving into the rest of the calendar.

“I know if I get off to a good start in Iowa, we’re halfway home,” Clinton said.

Katie Glueck reported from Sioux City, Iowa.

Politico    January 5, 2016